Feature
by David Latterman
While the debate rages on about tenancies-in-common (TICs) and condo conversion in San Francisco, I wish to clear up some misconceptions about TIC owners and who they are and where they live. This article will present some new demographic information about which groups are relying on TICs for first-time homeownership. Critics have portrayed TICs as a vehicle for wealthy, conservative San Franciscans. This data show quite a different picture. Most TICs are not located in San Francisco’s wealthier, more conservative neighborhoods but in the more progressive parts of the city, including Haight-Ashbury, Hayes Valley, Mission, Castro/Noe Valley and North Beach.
Plan C, a nonpartisan group of concerned San Franciscans that advocates for quality of life in San Francisco, hopes the political establishment sees TICs for what they are: a tool to help middle-class San Franciscans fulfill their dreams of affordable home ownership.
Rhetoric Doesn’t Equal Facts
Despite all the rhetoric about TICs and condo conversion in San Francisco, there has—until now—been very little data published regarding the location of TICs in the city. By using the San Francisco Department of Public Works’ (DPW) 2004 list of condo-conversion lottery winners and losers, the location of many of the city’s TICs can be determined (the lottery list is the waiting line for TIC owners to convert their units to separate condominiums). After compiling the data, the results showed that TICs are concentrated in the more politically liberal neighborhoods of San Francisco.
There is also a strong concentration of TICs in North Beach and other parts of the northern quadrant of the city, as well as throughout the Richmond. Except for a few parts of Marina and Pacific Heights, TICs tend not to be located in the more politically conservative sections of San Francisco, such as most of the west side.
TICs and the Middle Class
Much of the criticism of TICs in San Francisco has centered on class and income lines. Most TICs are located in middle-class neighborhoods, a finding based on taking the average median household income (AMI) from all of San Francisco’s census block groups and then underlaying the TIC locations with each group (AMI is defined by the median value of U.S. census block data for a family of four in San Francisco or $95,000 per household). There are 573 block groups in San Francisco with median-income data.
The Mayor’s Office on Housing defines San Francisco’s AMI for a family of four as $95,000 a year. 80% of this value is $76,000 per year for a household of four people, and 120% of AMI is $114,000 per year. This range is generally considered the middle-income range for San Francisco families.
As we can see, TICs are, for the most part, located in the middle-income portions of San Francisco. Many straddle the higher- and lower-income neighborhoods, especially in the central part of the city in the Castro, Haight, Mission and Bernal Heights.
A walk around these neighborhoods quickly convinces one that wealthy San Franciscans and outsiders apparently are not buying up these TICs to speculate; rather, middle-class San Franciscans are simply trying to own a home in the only neighborhoods they can afford, using TICs as the vehicle.
Chart 1 shows TIC locations and San Francisco median income by U.S. Census Block Group, 2000
TICs and the LGBT Community
Not only are TICs important to the middle class, but they also represent the homeownership vehicle of choice for the LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgendered) community. Chart 2 shows U.S. Census data for same-sex householders, overlaid with TIC locations. TICs are heavily concentrated in the Castro, Dolores Park and Bernal Heights—all areas that have high numbers of same-sex couples. Keep in mind that these numbers only represent same-sex households, not the total LGBT population.
TICs in Middle-Class Neighborhoods
It is clear that TICs are catching on elsewhere in the city. We contrasted DPW’s lottery data with current and recent TIC sales data provided by Pacific Union (the sales data contained TICs currently on the market, recently sold or with a sale pending and covered the time period from Oct 1, 2004, through Dec 31, 2004). The lottery data represent TICs purchased three to ten years ago, while the realtor data display the current market. The results revealed that TICs have spread to the Sunset and Richmond districts, as well as to the Excelsior and Bayview neighborhoods.
Conclusion
Contrary to conventional wisdom, the data show a heavy concentration of TICs in San Francisco’s middle-class and gay and lesbian neighborhoods, suggesting that TIC-ownership is an important first step toward homeownership for both groups.
Reprinted courtesy of Plan C. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoint of SFAA or the San Francisco Apartment Magazine. David Latterman is the founder of Fall Line Analytics, a consulting firm specializing in data analysis, demographics and mapping. His background is in quantitative policy analysis and much of his recent work has been analyzing San Francisco elections and voter trends.